Exhibit I — Regional Assessment
Regional SWOT analysis
A synthesis of the regional economic profile, the last two years of economic developments, and the published plans of cities, counties and partner agencies across the 17-county service region. This is a working draft for the CEDS: tell us where you agree, where you do not, and what is missing.
How the list changes: a public suggestion moves into the boxes below once it has at least 3 thumbs up and more than half its votes in favor. Any point that draws 9 or more votes and falls under 50% agreement drops to the archived list at the bottom of the page.
Points on the board
23
Votes cast
0
Overall agreement
—
Suggestions received
0
Archived
0
Strengths
Internal assets the region can build on
The most productive oil and gas basin in North America
Permian production anchors a dense cluster of operators, service firms, midstream companies and manufacturers that few regions of this population can match, generating wages, royalties and severance revenue well above state norms.
Basis: Baker Hughes county rig counts; regional industry mix in the economic profile
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High household incomes and a tight labor market
Median household income of about $77,000 and an unemployment rate near 3.3% put the region ahead of most non-metropolitan areas in Texas, giving employers a proven ability to pay competitive wages.
Basis: Census SAIPE 2023; BLS LAUS annual averages
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Population growth concentrated in two urban anchors
Midland and Ector counties continue to add residents and services, supporting regional retail, medical, air service and higher-education capacity that smaller counties draw on.
Basis: Census Population Estimates, 2019–2024
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Interstate, state highway and rail connectivity
More than 13,300 centerline miles of state-maintained highway and roughly 550 miles of rail line connect the region to Gulf Coast refining, Mexico trade lanes and southwestern markets.
Basis: TxDOT Roadway Inventory 2025; BTS/FRA North American Rail Network
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Deep local capital and philanthropic capacity
Locally headquartered energy firms, foundations and economic development corporations can co-invest in projects at a scale unusual for a region of this size.
Basis: Recent developments inventory; member plans in the plans library
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Weaknesses
Internal conditions that constrain growth
Economic concentration in a single volatile sector
Employment, tax base and population all move with the drilling cycle. Regional rig activity fell from an average near 297 in 2019 to roughly 139 in the most recent year, and payrolls follow.
Basis: Baker Hughes rig counts, 2019–present; LAUS employment trend
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Low postsecondary attainment
A smaller share of adults holds an associate degree or higher than statewide, which limits the region's competitiveness for diversified employers and slows reemployment after downturns.
Basis: ACS 5-Year Estimates, educational attainment
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Housing supply and affordability pressure
Boom-cycle demand outpaces construction, driving up rents and limiting the ability of teachers, nurses, first responders and service workers to live where they work.
Basis: ACS housing cost and tenure data; local comprehensive plans
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Remaining broadband and digital-access gaps
Household broadband subscription rose to about 86% region-wide, but roughly 11% of households still report no internet access at all, with rural and lower-income counties furthest behind.
Basis: ACS table B28002, 2019 and 2023
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Thin staff capacity in small counties and cities
Several member jurisdictions have little or no dedicated grant, planning or engineering staff, which slows project readiness and limits competitiveness for federal and state funding.
Basis: Coverage gaps observed across the regional plans library
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Constrained water supply and aging systems
Groundwater decline, produced-water handling and aging municipal distribution systems raise the cost of every new residential, commercial and industrial project.
Basis: Regional and municipal water and comprehensive plans
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Opportunities
External conditions the region can capture
Energy-adjacent diversification and advanced manufacturing
Sand, chemicals, equipment fabrication, pipe and modular manufacturing already serve the basin and can scale into markets outside oilfield demand.
Basis: Expansion and opening announcements in the developments inventory
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Solar, wind, storage and grid investment
Abundant land and solar resource, plus rising basin electricity demand, make the region a natural host for generation, transmission and storage projects with substantial property-tax value.
Basis: Announced generation and transmission projects; ERCOT interconnection activity
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Carbon capture, hydrogen and produced-water reuse
Existing pipeline corridors, geology and technical workforce position the region to capture emerging federal and private investment in low-carbon industry.
Basis: EDA CEDS economic resilience guidance; announced basin projects
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Aligned workforce and higher-education pipelines
Community colleges, universities and school districts can expand stackable credentials in energy, healthcare, skilled trades and logistics to lift attainment and retain young workers.
Basis: Workforce and institutional plans in the plans library
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Highway, rail and air corridor upgrades
Ongoing interstate, relief-route and rail improvements can reduce freight cost and crash exposure while opening new industrial sites.
Basis: TxDOT roadway inventory growth, 2019–2025; TxDOT project programming
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Quality of place as a retention strategy
Downtown redevelopment, childcare capacity, healthcare access and parks are increasingly what determine whether families stay through the next downturn.
Basis: Municipal comprehensive and downtown plans
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Threats
External forces that could set the region back
Commodity price and capital-discipline cycles
Operator consolidation and capital discipline mean production can hold while rigs, service contracts and local employment fall, breaking the historical link between output and jobs.
Basis: Rig count decline alongside sustained basin production
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Automation and consolidation reducing headcount
Mergers among operators and service companies have already produced office consolidations and layoffs in the region, with decision-making moving out of the basin.
Basis: Closing and relocation entries in the developments inventory
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Out-migration of young and skilled workers
Housing cost, childcare scarcity and limited career breadth push graduates toward larger metros, thinning the pipeline for employers of every type.
Basis: Age structure and migration components in Census estimates
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Drought, water scarcity and induced seismicity
Extended drought and disposal-related seismic activity carry regulatory and operational risk for both municipalities and industry.
Basis: State water planning; Railroad Commission seismic response areas
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Policy and funding volatility
Shifts in federal energy, permitting and grant policy can reverse project economics and stall announced investments before construction.
Basis: Unrealized announcements tracked in the developments inventory
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Infrastructure lagging behind demand peaks
Road wear, school capacity, emergency services and utilities are sized between booms, so each upswing arrives faster than public capacity can be financed and built.
Basis: Local capital improvement plans; TxDOT maintenance reporting
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Add to the analysis
Suggest an addition
Pick the box it belongs in and describe the strength, weakness, opportunity or threat in a sentence or two. Suggestions are public, and once one earns at least 3 thumbs up with majority support it joins the boxes above.
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Removed by vote
Archived points
Points that drew 9 or more votes and fell below 50% agreement. They stay on the record and return to the boxes above if opinion shifts back.
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